Analysts Believe New Flash Memory Shortage May Be Imminent

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I think we all know by now to look a little bit askance at the work of analysts, but still, the things they say are at least worth looking at if for no other reason than to help us consider our own futures. And from one such analyst, there could be trouble ahead for the flash memory industry if there’s a third iPad released in the next six months.

The current thinking of Matthew Bryson out at Avian Securities runs a little something like this: between the growing number of cloud-based services (Think Amazon and Google here, plus a steadily growing number of others.) and the rumors of an iPhone 5 with plenty of extra memory coming out later on this year, the flash memory industry will be pretty well strained for the foreseeable future. But if an iPad 3 comes along and adds to the pile, that could mean a series shortage in terms of flash memory available.

Bryson goes on to say that flash memory makers were prepared for more cell phones to hit the market and require flash memory, but none of them really saw the whole cloud / streaming services thing get started and place its attendant demands on flash memory. And with Apple and Google building devices geared toward the use of cloud / streaming, that’s putting a strain on the production capabilities of memory makers.

Lastly, Bryson is pegging a new iPad to emerge in six months, as, according to his contacts in supply chain firms, Apple is already submitting design specs.

I confess to some skepticism in this analysis. While it’s useful as a “wake-up call” to the various flash memory manufacturers (Hey, guys, whole lot of business coming your way. Best tool up lest the flood hit and catch you unawares.), the timing seems a bit flawed. We only just got through with the last iPad announcement, maybe just a month ago. Why would Apple announce the iPad 3 only six months after the iPad 2? Sure, getting a major product update out for Christmas shopping season is a boon to any company’s bottom line, but if Apple puts out a new iPad before people could barely get their hands on the last one, that’s going to end up in some negative press. iPhone 5, sure. iPad 3? Not so sure. We’re already calling it for 2012, not later this year.

It’s good that Bryson brought this up, but I don’t think it’s quite as apocalyptic as he seems to think.