iPad Envy Infecting 27% of Non-Apple E-Reader Owners [ChangeWave Research Details The Pre-Release Demand For The Apple iPad]

ChangeWave Research has released a survey of the current E-Reader market as it relates to demand for the Apple iPad prior to its release.  ChangeWave surveyed consumers who owned E-Reader devices through February 27th, finding 27% of these consumers wished they had waited for the release of the iPad to make their purchase.

For consumers who do not yet own an E-Reader device but plan on making a purchase in the next 90 days, 40% said they will be purchasing an Apple iPad, to 28% who prefer the Amazon Kindle.  Much of the iPad demand, however, comes from consumers who will prefer the device for its non e-reader features like web browsing and email.  Beyond this group of immediate buyers, however, 62% of potential iPad buyers will wait 2-12 months before purchasing an Apple iPad.

At first glance, a 27% rate of buyers remorse for not buying an iPad and a 40% group of early adopters seems quite low.  Compared to the Apple iPhone, however, these numbers appear more favorable.  4% of the ChangeWave survey respondents said they are very likely to purchase an iPad, compared to 3% in the pre-release cycle of the iPhone.  9% of “somewhat likely” buyers will opt for the iPad, compared to 6% for the iPhone prior to its release.

Those numbers are a bit misleading, at least in this writer’s opinion.  There are several inflating factors that likely diminished pre-iPhone demand, and several factors that could be inflating iPad demand.  The iPhone entered a thick, competitive market in which consumers are most often locked into long term contracts with their carriers, preventing them from buying when they want without paying hefty fees.  The iPad is entering a market with only two major players, the Amazon Kindle and Barnes and Noble Nook.  There are no long-term contracts for e-reader consumers, meaning anyone can purchase freely without fees.  Taking these factors into account, it is possibly that there is in fact less demand for the iPad than there was for the iPhone.  At the very least, it suggests that this survey by ChangeWave Research could be less-than conclusive.